Below is a 2-hour chart of SPY, the S&P 500 SPDR. I am experimenting with this new chart style to add some color to my site. There is just too much gray. I used the 2-hour chart because it shows more details. Below the chart you can see the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO). DPO is not designed to give momentum signals but rather to estimate cycle length. I am using DPO to "predict" the next bottom. Keep in mind that this is only an estimate.
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The daily chart below shows XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR. Below the chart you can see the relative performance to the S&P 500. XLV clearly outperforms the S&P 500. The Health Care Sector was the strongest last year too, in the past year it gained over 38%.
I decided to close these two poitions, see the table below. Both trades did well, the E-mini futures trade made about 46% profit and the VIX futures trade made about 71% profit.
The New York Stock Exchange McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator calculated from the McClellan Oscillator and based on the Net Advances. The Summation Index is simpy a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. When the Summation index is positive and rising, it is bullish and the opposite is bearish. During a strong bull market the Summation Index stays positive for a long period of time. The chart below shows the NYSE Summation Index. As you can see it is in positive territory and rising.
The market nicely keeps moving up which favors these two futures trade. The table below shows the two positions at market close on Friday.
The table below shows how much the value of these two trades went up as the market moved higher. The profit more than doubled since my last post. The E-mini trade increased by 2.24 and the $VIX trade by 2.31, so they increased almost i indentical way..
The table below shows two futures trade. One on the E-mini S&P 500 and the other one on $VIX futures. Both of the contracts have March expiration date. So far there is a 15% and 25% profit in these trades. Could have been more with a better enty point. Futures are very liquid and can be traded almost all the time. Futures also have grate leverage. Unlike options, futures don't have time decay or they value won't change with the change in volatility.
The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 nine sectors during the past week. The offensive sectors are outperforming the defensive sectors.
$SPXA50R, the S&P 500 percent of stocks above their 50-day moving average seems to be stalled at the 40% area. In the fairly recent past $SPXA50R bounced back from this level several times as you can see it on the chart below and that would be bullish at least in the short term. In the background you can also see that these low levels correspond to short term bottoms on SPX, the S&P 500 large cap index chart.
$CPC, the CBOE total Put/Call ratio has been below its 200-day moving average for over three months. Since the beginning of 2014 it's been moving higher as investors want to protect their portfolios with buying more put options. As you can see below the chart, $CPC is mostly negatively correlated to the S&P 500 index.
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