In the period following recessions, the black line tends to be above the red line, which means GDP growth accelerates (drops on chart) relatively faster than jobless claims fall. This was true following the recessions beginning in 1990, 2001 and 2007.
Leading into theses recessions there was a period where the red line on average was noticeably above the black line, as the growth rate faltered before jobless claims started to increase, even allowing for the 5-month lead time.
A similar gap with the red line above the black line started a little over a year ago. In the prior two recessions, the gap started about two years before the recession. If the same pattern follows in this business cycle, the beginning of the recession would be less than a year away.