A correction in the U.S. stock market is now overdue. But what actions should investors take if any in anticipation of such a pullback? For the long-term investor, the answer is very little, at least at first, as they will likely be better served to initially stand their ground with positions if not snap up a position or two on any short-term pullback. This is due to the fact that stocks enjoy an extensive netting of technical support at current levels. Stocks have repeatedly bounced off of key technical levels such as the upward sloping 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 150-day moving averages throughout the latest market rally that began at the start of 2013. And until the S&P 500 Index begins to sustainably break these important technical levels and begins to test the still upward sloping 200-day moving average over the period of a few months, stocks are likely to maintain their short-term resilience. Moreover, bullishness among stock investors remains sufficiently strong at this point that even if we were to see a sustained correction, buyers would likely emerge to purchase the dips and reverse the downward trend at least on the first or second correction. Such is the nature of market topping processes and how bull markets end, and it will be key to monitor how the market behaves once some of these key technical levels are breached to determine whether a bull market top has finally been established or if the uptrend is poised to continue further.

Despite all this negativity, equities have continued grinding higher this year. Why? It is the fundamentals that matter for markets, not sentiment, and U.S. fundamental economic data have been strong, and are getting stronger.

How strong will the rally be? The tectonic sentiment shift from negative back to positive that is now starting, and the likely spread of economic strength from employment to incomes, make me think that it will be quite strong - our latest forecast for the S&P 500 six-month return is between 5% and 10%.

• I think that Value will underperform - we prefer broad market (SPY, IVV) to value (IVE, IWD). Avoid defensive sectors such as utilities (XLU).
• Growth should outperform the broad/balanced market - ETFs such as (IWF, IVW, VUG) should do well. Broad Tech sector (QQQ, XLK) likely do well (but I would avoid Social Media - that mini-bubble will not re-inflate).
• I think that small-cap (IWM, IJR, VB) selloff is over and they may bounce in short-term, but we don't see them outperforming over 3-6 months.

In the period following recessions, the black line tends to be above the red line, which means GDP growth accelerates (drops on chart) relatively faster than jobless claims fall. This was true following the recessions beginning in 1990, 2001 and 2007.

Leading into theses recessions there was a period where the red line on average was noticeably above the black line, as the growth rate faltered before jobless claims started to increase, even allowing for the 5-month lead time.

A similar gap with the red line above the black line started a little over a year ago. In the prior two recessions, the gap started about two years before the recession. If the same pattern follows in this business cycle, the beginning of the recession would be less than a year away.

Like open-end and exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds are available in a wide variety of offerings. Stock funds, bond funds and balanced funds provide a full range of asset allocation options, and both foreign and domestic markets are represented. Regardless of the specific fund chosen, closed-end funds (unlike some open-end and ETF counterparts) are all actively managed. Investors choose to place their assets in closed-end funds in the hope that the fund managers will use their management skills to add alpha and deliver returns in excess of those that would be available via investing in an index product that tracked the portfolio's benchmark index.

However, investors need to be aware that while consumers will indeed have to continue to eat, drink and take their medicine, and therefore continue to buy the products of those companies, in a market decline investors do not have to continue to value the earnings of those companies as highly as during an exciting bull market. Furthermore, they do not.

In the enthusiasm of a bull market investors may be willing to pay 20 times earnings for a stock, while in the throes of a serious market decline they will perhaps pay only 12 times earnings for the same stock. Thus, although a company's earnings may continue to grow, even "defensive" sector companies see their stocks decline in value in a market correction.

A fair amount of attention has been paid in the past couple of weeks to the low market volatility that has evolve in certain markets.

James Mackintosh lists some of these in a piece in the Financial Times. For example, he writes that "The 10-year yield (on Treasury bonds) has moved within a band only 23 basis points wide since January, the narrowest range for the longest time since 1978."

Furthermore, "Oil has traded between $100 and $110 for the past year-leaving it in the narrowest percentage range for the longest period since 1985."

In addition, 'The S&P 500 since February has been in the narrowest channel for the longest since February 2007, just before the subprime crisis became obvious."

And, "The dollar, too, has been heavily rangebound, at lease against other developed countries.

But, these three situations…and more…I believe contribute to a feeling on the part of investors that they really don't know which way the economy is going to go and they are trying to stay sharp so that they can move in the appropriate direction when the time is right.

I do not believe that this low volatility range we are in is a result of market complacency. I don't think there is anything to be complacent about.

As we concluded here last week, there was no compelling evidence that the selloff was anything more than a normal temporary pullback. The past week's bounce in most global indexes suggests that most felt likewise.

I'm not saying stocks couldn't sell off, they could. I just don't see any new reason why that would happen now. There's no compelling reason for a new leg higher, but there also isn't a reason for a selloff either. Sure, with stocks so high any number of factors could spark a normal 10%-15% pullback. But beyond that? What?

At this point, the market needs more than just hopes.

Next week's economic reports may be key in that regard, since they will provide updates on retail sales, new housing starts, industrial production, and the Fed's 'beige book' analysis of economic conditions in its 12 regions.

Meanwhile, the volatility has spawned considerable talk of bubbles and crashes; either that the market is not yet in bubble conditions so has further to go (usually after several triple-digit rally days); or is due for a vicious crash (usually after several triple-digit down days).

However, both bubbles and crashes are extremely rare events, neither likely to take place.

As we move into April, it's important to look at the stock market's long history of making most of its gains each year in a favorable 'season' of November to April, while most of its corrections and bear market down-legs take place in an unfavorable season from May to October.

Additionally, the historical evidence that clearly shows seasonal investing substantially outperforms the market over the long term (while taking only 50% of market risk) includes those individual years when it did not outperform.

The big question for this year is whether it will be three straight years that seasonality does not 'work'. Or will it more likely resemble 2011 (or worse), when massive QE stimulus did not prevent a 20% market plunge in the unfavorable season. (The only thing that prevented it from becoming worse in 2011 was that the Bernanke Fed rushed in to double the QE from $40 billion a month to $85 billion a month).

It has not caught much attention in the financial media, but just 3 weeks ago, the commercial traders of crude oil futures reached an all-time high in terms of a net short position.  The commercial traders are the big money, and thus they are presumed to be the smart money.  But quite often they will get to a skewed position well ahead of a turn for crude oil prices.